Prediction of the South China Sea Dipole Using SSA-MEM     

Qiong Xia  Enbo Wei 《大气与海洋》2018,56(4):240-253

ABSTRACT

A dipole structure appears in the sea surface height off the central coast of Vietnam during boreal summer in the South China Sea. This dipole, which possesses a chlorophyll signature associated with higher phytoplankton concentrations arising from nutrient upwelling, is important for the productivity of local fisheries. Multi-satellite sea level anomalies are used to investigate the life cycle of the dipole structure. By applying empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, the third EOF mode (EOF 3) is found to represent the major variations of the dipole structure. By removing the temporal noise of EOF 3, a South China Sea dipole index is defined. This index captures the life cycle of the dipole including its generation, mature strength, and final termination. Both one-dimensional and two-dimensional forecasts are generated using a statistical forecasting method that combines singular-spectrum analysis and the maximum entropy method. The appearance of the dipole structure can be predicted with an accuracy of 78% at one-month lead times and an accuracy of 61% at one-year lead times.  相似文献   

印度河上游Bagrot山谷降水稳定同位素变化及与水汽来源的关系          下载免费PDF全文

王邺凡  余武生  张寅生  张腾  高海峰  MUHAMMAD Atif Wazir 《干旱区地理》2019,42(2):252-262

利用2015年8月至2016年7月在印度河上游流域Bagrot山谷降水稳定同位素（δ18O和δD）观测结果以及当地气象资料，利用同位素示踪及统计分析方法，并结合HYSPLIT模型，对研究区降水稳定同位素变化特征、大气水线以及水汽来源进行了分析。结果表明，观测期间Bagrot山谷降水稳定同位素的季节变化明显，δ18O与δD秋冬季偏低，春夏季偏高，且与气温变化一致，存在显著的温度效应，而降水量效应不明显。而且发现，研究区局地大气水线截距和斜率均低于全球的，反映了降水过程中云下二次蒸发作用较为强烈，特别是，不同的降水形态导致该研究区局地大气水线的斜率和截距不同。当液态降水（降雨）发生时，由于在较为干旱的气候环境下，雨滴在降落的过程中受到二次蒸发相对较强，使得局地大气水线的斜率和截距偏低；而当固态降水（降雪）发生时，由于温度较低，受再循环水汽和二次蒸发的影响较小，导致局地大气水线的斜率和截距均偏高。Bagrot山谷及其周边地区，从南到北局地大气水线的斜率相差不大，而其截距总体上随着纬度升高而降低，可能与云下二次蒸发导致稳定同位素发生的不平衡分馏逐渐强烈有关。通过Bagrot山谷站点降水稳定同位素观测结果并结合HYSPLIT模型的后向追踪，研究还发现，研究区全年主要受西风环流以及局地环流的影响。但与研究区以北的临近站点（慕士塔格、和田等）相比有所不同，由于Bagrot山谷位置更靠南，其仍然偶尔受到来自南方的海洋性水汽影响。这一研究结果可能对该地区树轮稳定同位素记录的解译具有一定的指示意义。  相似文献   

Bound and mobile soil water isotope ratios are affected by soil texture and mineralogy,whereas extraction method influences their measurement     

Rachel E. Adams  Ayumi Hyodo  Toby SantaMaria  Cynthia L. Wright  Thomas W. Boutton  Jason B. West 《水文研究》2020,34(4):991-1003

Questions persist about interpreting isotope ratios of bound and mobile soil water pools, particularly relative to clay content and extraction conditions. Interactions between pools and resulting extracted water isotope composition are presumably related to soil texture, yet few studies have manipulated the bound pool to understand its influence on soil water processes. Using a series of drying and spiking experiments, we effectively labelled bound and mobile water pools in soils with varying clay content. Soils were first vacuum dried to remove residual water, which was then replaced with heavy isotope-enriched water prior to oven drying and spiking with heavy isotope-depleted water. Water was extracted via centrifugation or cryogenic vacuum distillation (at four temperatures) and analysed for oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios via isotope ratio mass spectrometry. Water from centrifuged samples fell along a mixing line between the two added waters but was more enriched in heavy isotopes than the depleted label, demonstrating that despite oven drying, a residual pool remains and mixes with the mobile water. Soils with higher clay + silt content appeared to have a larger bound pool. Water from vacuum distillation samples have a significant temperature effect, with high temperature extractions yielding progressively more heavy isotope-enriched values, suggesting that Rayleigh fractionation occurred at low temperatures in the vacuum line. By distinctly labelling bound and mobile soil water pools, we detected interactions between the two that were dependent on soil texture. Although neither extraction method appeared to completely extract the combined bound and mobile (total water) pool, centrifugation and high temperature cryogenic vacuum distillations were comparable for both δ²H and δ¹⁸O of soil water isotope ratios.  相似文献   

Evaluation of clayed silt properties on the behavior of hydrate production in South China Sea     

《China Geology》2020,3(3):362-368

Gas hydrate is one kind of potential energy resources that is buried under deep seafloor or frozen areas. The first trial offshore production from the silty reservoir was conducted in the South China Sea by the China Geological Survey (CGS). During this test, there were many unique characteristics different from the sand reservoir, which was believed to be related to the clayed silt physical properties. In this paper, simulation experiments, facilities analysis, and theoretical calculation were used to confirm the hydrate structure, reservoir thermo-physical property, and bond water movement rule. And the behavior of how they affected production efficiency was analyzed. The results showed that: It was reasonable to use the structure I rather than structure II methane hydrate phase equilibrium data to make the production plan; the dissociation heat absorbed by hydrate was large enough to cause hydrate self-protection or reformation depend on the reservoir thermal transfer and gas supply; clayed silt got better thermal conductivity compared to coarse grain, but poor thermal convection especially with hydrate; clayed silt sediment was easy to bond water, but the irreducible water can be exchanged to free water under high production pressure, and the most obvious pressure range of water increment was 1.9–4.9 MPa.  相似文献   

Calibration method affects the measured δ2H and δ18O in soil water by direct H2Oliquid–H2Ovapour equilibration with laser spectroscopy     

Hongxiu Wang  Bingcheng Si  Dyan Pratt  Han Li  Xiaojun Ma 《水文研究》2020,34(2):506-516

The direct H₂O_liquid–H₂O_vapour equilibration method utilizing laser spectroscopy (DVE-LS) is a way to measure soil pore water stable isotopes. Various equilibration times and calibration methods have been used in DVE-LS. Yet little is known about their effects on the accuracy of the obtained isotope values. The objective of this study was to evaluate how equilibration time and calibration methods affect the accuracy of DVE-LS. We did both spiking and field soil experiments. For the spiking experiment, we applied DVE-LS to four soils of different textures, each of which was subjected to five water contents and six equilibration times. For the field soil experiment, we applied three calibration methods for DVE-LS to two field soil profiles, and the results were compared with cryogenic vacuum distillation (CVD)-LS. Results showed that DVE-LS demonstrated higher δ²H and δ¹⁸O as equilibration time increased, but 12 to 24 hr could be used as optimal equilibration time. For field soil samples, DVE-LS with liquid waters as standards led to significantly higher δ²H and δ¹⁸O than CVD-LS, with root mean square error (RMSE) of 8.06‰ for δ²H and 0.98‰ for δ¹⁸O. Calibration with soil texture reduced RMSE to 3.53‰ and 0.72‰ for δ²H and δ¹⁸O, respectively. Further, calibration with both soil texture and water content decreased RMSE to 3.10‰ for δ²H and 0.73‰ for δ¹⁸O. Our findings conclude that the calibration method applied may affect the measured soil water isotope values from DVE-LS.  相似文献   

Quality and timing of crowd-based water level class observations     

Simon Etter  Barbara Strobl  Ilja van Meerveld  Jan Seibert 《水文研究》2020,34(22):4365-4378

Crowd-based hydrological observations can supplement existing monitoring networks and allow data collection in regions where otherwise no data would be available. In the citizen science project CrowdWater, repeated water level observations using a virtual staff gauge approach result in time series of water level classes (WL-classes). To investigate the quality of these observations, we compared the WL-class data with “real” (i.e., measured) water levels from the same stream at a nearby gauging station. We did this for nine locations where citizen scientists reported multiple observations using a smartphone app and at 12 locations where signposts were set up to ask citizens to record observations on a paper form that could be left in a letterbox. The results indicate that the quality of the data collected with the app was better than for the forms. A possible explanation is that for each app location, a single person submitted the vast majority of the observations, whereas at the locations of the forms almost every observation was made by a different person. On average, there were more contributions between May and September than during the other months. Observations were submitted for a range of flow conditions, with a higher fraction of high flow observations for the locations were data were collected with the app. Overall, the results are encouraging for citizen science approaches in hydrology and demonstrate that the smartphone application and the virtual staff gauge are a promising approach for crowd-based water level class observations.  相似文献   

CORS系统的差分定位终端设计与实现     

刘邢巍  史俊波  蒲德祥  许超钤 《测绘通报》2020,(12):114-117

当前广泛使用的实时GNSS定位应用可分为两种：一种是低成本定位应用，其采用廉价的芯片和天线，广泛应用于手机、共享单车和公交车定位等方面；另一种是高精度GNSS定位应用，采用网络RTK技术并结合测量型天线和接收机，为高精度测量用户提供实时厘米级测量服务。随着物联网、5G等技术的发展，实时分米到亚米级的定位需求逐渐增多。原有的低成本GNSS定位技术无法达到这一精度要求，高精度定位的设备成本高昂，无法用于大众导航领域。因此，本文实现了一种基于CORS系统的低成本差分定位终端。该终端包括两个部分：外接设备和手机。试验表明，在接入CORS系统后，该设备水平方向的定位精度可以达到亚米级，对推进CORS系统的大范围应用具有一定的意义。  相似文献   

Characterization of complex groundwater flows in the environment of singular buildings by combining hydrogeological and non-destructive geophysical (ground-penetrating radar) techniques: Punta Begoña Galleries (Getxo,Spain)     

Jesus A. Uriarte  Laura Damas Mollá  Maialen Sagarna  Arantza Aranburu  Francisco García  Iñaki Antigüedad  Tomás Morales 《水文研究》2020,34(4):1004-1015

Locating and quantifying groundwater flow in many built-up areas are a priority with regard to its complete restoration. In this work, a hydrogeological survey of the surroundings of the Punta Begoña Galleries (Getxo, Bizkaia), built on a coastal cliff, was completed by using ground penetrating radar (GPR) testing. Thus, the preliminary characterization of soils and rocks in accessible areas of the cliff was first improved by hydrogeological information gathered from a single survey borehole, including permeability measurements by low pressure injection tests (LPTs) and continuous water level monitoring. As a complementary method, the non-destructive GPR technique was performed during both dry and wet hydrological periods and in tandem with the injection tests, providing more complete spatial and temporal images of water flows. Specifically, GPR allows mapping of flow paths in soils and assessing the continuity of fractures in rock masses. Altogether, this complementary approach provides greater knowledge of complex underground flow dynamics in built environments, thus making it easier to make decisions for their management.  相似文献   

Multivariate adaptive regression splines for estimating riverine constituent concentrations     

Hong Huang  Xiaoliang Ji  Fang Xia  Shuhui Huang  Xu Shang  Han Chen  Minghua Zhang  Randy A. Dahlgren  Kun Mei 《水文研究》2020,34(5):1213-1227

Regression-based methods are commonly used for riverine constituent concentration/flux estimation, which is essential for guiding water quality protection practices and environmental decision making. This paper developed a multivariate adaptive regression splines model for estimating riverine constituent concentrations (MARS-EC). The process, interpretability and flexibility of the MARS-EC modelling approach, was demonstrated for total nitrogen in the Patuxent River, a major river input to Chesapeake Bay. Model accuracy and uncertainty of the MARS-EC approach was further analysed using nitrate plus nitrite datasets from eight tributary rivers to Chesapeake Bay. Results showed that the MARS-EC approach integrated the advantages of both parametric and nonparametric regression methods, and model accuracy was demonstrated to be superior to the traditionally used ESTIMATOR model. MARS-EC is flexible and allows consideration of auxiliary variables; the variables and interactions can be selected automatically. MARS-EC does not constrain concentration-predictor curves to be constant but rather is able to identify shifts in these curves from mathematical expressions and visual graphics. The MARS-EC approach provides an effective and complementary tool along with existing approaches for estimating riverine constituent concentrations.  相似文献   

Assessing basin storage: Comparison of hydrometric- and tracer-based indices of dynamic and total storage     

Ciara D. Cooke  James M. Buttle 《水文研究》2020,34(9):2012-2031

Storage is a fundamental but elusive component of drainage basin function, influencing synchronization between precipitation input and streamflow output and mediating basin sensitivity to climate and land use/land cover (LULC) change. We compare hydrometric and isotopic approaches to estimate indices of dynamic and total basin storage, respectively, and assess inter-basin differences in these indices across the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) region of southern Ontario, Canada. Dynamic storage indices for the 20 study basins included the ratio of baseflow to total streamflow (baseflow index BFI), Q ₉₉ flow and flow duration curve (FDC) slope. Ratios of the standard deviation of the streamflow stable isotope signal relative to that of precipitation were determined for each basin from a 1 year bi-weekly sampling program and used as indicators of total storage. Smaller ratios imply longer water travel times, smaller young water fractions (F _yw, < ~2–3 months in age) in streamflow and greater basin storage. Ratios were inversely related to BFI and Q ₉₉, and positively related to FDC slope, suggesting longer travel times and smaller F _yw for basins with stable baseflow-dominated streamflow regimes. Inter-basin differences in all indices reflected topographic, hydrogeologic and LULC controls on storage, which was greatest in steep, forest-covered headwaters underlain by permeable deposits with thick and relatively uniform unsaturated zones. Nevertheless, differential sensitivity of indices to controls on storage indicates the value of using several indices to capture more completely how basin characteristics influence storage. Regression relationships between storage indices and basin characteristics provided reasonable predictions of aspects of the streamflow regime of test basins in the ORM region. Such relationships and the underlying knowledge of controls on basin storage in this landscape provide the foundation for initial predictions of relative differences in streamflow response to regional changes in climate and LULC.  相似文献